A recent study by the University of Oxford highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains to disruptions at key maritime chokepoints. The research examined 24 major chokepoints and estimated that disruptions at critical passages impacted $192 billion in trade annually, resulting in approximately $14 billion in economic losses.

“We estimate the economic losses of chokepoint disruptions, due to delays, rerouting, insurance premiums and trade disruptions, to be USD10.7 billion per year, and an additional USD3.4 billion per year due to increased freight costs,” the researchers wrote.

The countries most exposed to economic risks include Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Panama, given their heavy reliance on at-risk chokepoints. However, as The Maritime Executive reported, impacts from the disruptions would cascade and affect transport costs and consumer prices beyond those directly linked to the disrupted chokepoint.

“Our global economy depends on just a handful of maritime chokepoints. When one of these narrow passages is disrupted, the consequences can quickly ripple across continents. Understanding these risks is vital for building resilience into global supply chains,” said Dr Jasper Verschuur, lead author of the research.

The study also found that disruptions often arose from interconnected threats such as armed conflict, piracy, terrorism, and natural hazards like cyclones. These overlapping risks triggered simultaneous disruptions, severely limiting rerouting options and impacting trade flows.

“The co-occurrence of hazards shows how interlinked our maritime system really is. A single event in one part of the world can trigger or amplify risks elsewhere,” noted Dr Johannes Lumma.

The research, titled Systemic Impacts of Disruptions at Maritime Chokepoints, was published in Nature Communications and conducted by Dr. Jasper Verschuur,Dr Johannes Lumma, and Prof Jim Hall, researchers at the Oxford Programme for Sustainable Infrastructure Systems (OPSIS) at the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford. 

Source: University of Oxford, Nature Communications, Maritime Executive