Trans-Pacific container rates have decreased as manufacturing and logistics operations in China wound down in anticipation of the Lunar New Year holiday, which began on January 29. In the week ending January 24, Asia-U.S. West Coast ocean rates fell by -7% per FEU, while the Asia-U.S. East Coast rates dropped -1% per FEU according to the Freightos Baltic Dry Index.

Judah Levine, head of research for Freightos, reported that the Trans-Pacific to U.S West Coast rates fell by -17% since mid-January and Asia-Europe rates dropped by -25%. Despite these reductions, the current rates are still more than double the levels recorded in 2019, as vessel diversions from the Red Sea continue to limit capacity. Levine noted that most carriers are avoiding this route even though a ceasefire is in place, with ocean carrier CMA CGM being the only exception.

Shippers rushing to move goods before the implementation of potential tariffs are expected to keep ocean volumes and rates high in Q1 2025 and potentially into Q2. Levine mentioned that this front-loading could lead to lower volumes and rates once the tariffs are enforced. Canada and the EU have signaled the possibility of retaliatory tariffs, which may affect U.S. exports.

New ocean carrier alliances set to launch February including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini, could have an influence on rates. Additionally, global schedule reliability fell to 53.8% in December, with average vessel delays dropping to 5.28 days, the lowest since July 2024, as reported by Sea-Intelligence.

Source: American Shipper