The global container shipping market is undergoing a shift with demand increasingly driven by trade routes outside of the U.S. In its Container Shipping Market Overview for September 2025, international shipping association BIMCO highlighted this trend through insights shared by Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen. In the video presentation, Rasmussen projected that global cargo volumes will grow by 2.5-3.5% year-on-year in 2025. For 2026, he anticipates a similar overall percentage increase. 

This anticipated growth is largely attributed to resilient cargo flows on trade lanes not bound for the U.S. As reported by Hellenic Shipping News, BIMCO expects ship demand to grow faster in 2025, particularly for Asian exports to sub-Saharan Africa, South and Central America, and the European and Mediterranean regions, as the long head-haul trades are experiencing above-average growth rates. Ship demand is projected to rise by 4.5-5.5% in 2025, followed by a 2.5-3.5% increase in 2026.

BIMCO’s September market overview noted that elevated demand is coming from the continued rerouting of vessels around the Southern tip of Africa. Rasmussen, in his briefing, pointed out that Suez Canal transits remain 90% lower than pre-conflict levels due to attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. If vessels resume their regular transits, ship demand could fall 10% below current projections.

The implementation of U.S. tariff increases has dampened import volumes to North America. As Hellenic Shipping News reported, year-on-year comparisons since April have shown that volume growth in the region has been negative. BIMCO’s September overview forecasted a 2% decline for 2025. This trend is supported by the National Retail Federation (NRF), which lowered its inbound volume projection for 2025. According to gCaptain’s report, the NRF assessed that import volumes would decrease by 3.4% for 2025.

Hellenic Shipping News reported that BIMCO’s forward-looking forecast includes expectations for freight rates to stabilize in 2026 as supply and demand growth is forecasted.

Source: BIMCO, Hellenic Shipping news, gCaptain